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3.24.2005 ||> You say you want a revolution...
I have been totally addicted to events unfolding in Kyrgyzstan much as I was when Ukraine has its Orange Revolution. I think the "Tulip Revolution" will be completely unlike what happened in Georgia and Ukraine in that it already seems more violent and very disorganized.
Just look at the factors. Ukraine is already very close to former communist countries that have already reaped the benefits of democracy. All they have to do is go next door to Hungary or the Czech Republic to see how it's done. Who do the Kyrgyz have to compare? The Tajiks? As for violence, Uzbekistan has already seen two waves of bombings in the last year, why would the Kyrgyz be any different? Hell, Kyrgyzstan is where the IMU fled to when they failed in Uzbekistan.
What it all comes down to is that it would be just fabulous if democracy would flower in Kyrgyzstan. Maybe then the other stans would fall suit too and we could end all the oppression in the region. Although, what I'm afraid of is that either the President will pull a Pinochet on the opposition or that it will become less people power and more like a movement of radical leaders who would in turn oppress the people in a different way. Since it seems that a crackdown is imminent, I would guess the former as more likely.
When I was at the university, we could discuss the political ramifications of stuff like this for hours. I almost wish I was in a Master's program so I could write a paper on the various peaceful revolutions and how to encourage them throughout the world. Or maybe a comparative analysis of the effectiveness/longevity of the peaceful revolutions versus the more militant maneuvers.
But I'm also a geek. When I pointed out the irony of the full page Terri Shiavo article and the two inches of newspaper space on a revolution that could change Central Asia, my aunt brought me back down to reality. "Well, how many people here know how to pronounce 'Kyrgyzstan'? The real news rarely gets published."
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